Seismic Data Visualization – Does This Mean Anything?

 

I recently did a bit of digging for seismic data (earthquakes).  It seemed like things were getting worse, but what does the hard data say?  I found a site at http://www.iris.edu/SeismiQuery/sq-events.htm that provides raw data.  I created a Python script to roll it up and do a histogram of over time of strong quakes.  The source for that program is at https://github.com/Uberan/seipy .

The disturbing part is the apparent trends.  I don’t claim to know about seismology – I am merely creating a visualization of public data from the www.iris.edu site.  Please look at the data below and draw your own conclusions.  Also feel free to look and/or run the program – I have placed it in the public domain.

One thing I wonder – are we getting better at logging earthquakes so that over time we observe more of them?  It would seem that most big quakes are hard to miss, but perhaps this data is skewed by our increasing ability to measure quakes.  Is this data somehow incomplete?  If someone can vouch for the data or knows why this data may be incomplete, please post.

BTW, you’ll have to click on each graph to enlarge them enough to see the data points.

A P2P Lending Experiment

Report of my little experiment with P2P lending…

www.prosper.com - I previously used them, but they can no longer do biz in Arizona.  All my prior loans have been repaid, BTW.  A good experience, until they were no longer accessible to me.
www.lendingclub.com - requires a 3rd party to broker their funds. Hopefully it’ll all get set up soon so I can make a loan to someone.  Here’s an article on them
www.kiva.com - Made a loan to a person in Columbia in less than 5 min with Paypal.

I was originally trying to determine if P2P and/or micro-lending was for me.  Is it a reasonable risk for the return?  Are the administering companies stable?

I learned something very different.  They are biased toward non-US loans (and to some extent micro-loans – i.e. keeping the dollar amount low).  Kiva is great and I’m glad to have them. But making a microloan to a US person is MUCH more difficult. This seems unfair to me and frankly bad economic policy.  What’s the regulators point here?  Is it that we should be loaning to poor countries instead of in the US?  Or we should only loan small amounts?  P2P is only for ‘charity’ loans, and we need to leave the real money to the big financial institutions?  P2P lending seems like a great idea, and it needs to happen in the US with less friction.

VCs, Entrepreneurs and Impedance Mismatch

I’ve been observing the tech angel/venture capitalists and entrepreneurs for a while now.  The biggest surprise I’ve found is what I’ll call an ‘impedance mismatch’ between VCs (I’ll use this broader term for this post) and entrepreneurs.

Entrepreneur teams should provide interesting technology and operational capabilities.  They should have innovative idea(s) at some level, technical competence and the ability and will to execute.  It’s also important to be able to ‘pivot’ when necessary for the good of the business. Since they are small teams a breadth of ability is also key.

The VC should provide funding and be a sounding board for direction (and the entrepreneur must be able to engage in this discussion).  The VC brings their connections and experience to the table and round out the capabilities of the combined team (VC + entrepreneurs).

Obviously this isn’t a complete list of the who-does-what, but I wanted to provide some introductory words to frame this post.  Now on to the “impedance matching”…

#1 : Equity
The first disappointment for the Entrepreneur is learning that the VC wants a huge % of the company for what seems to be a small investment.  When the VC is asked why this must be, they say that 90% of the ventures fail.  YOU have to give me a 10x return on my money to make up for everyone else that fails.  To the entrepreneur who is sure they are going to succeed this hardly seems fair.  Or perhaps it gives them a crutch – it’s now OK to fail since most do anyway …
The flip side of this is when the entrepreneur shows the hockey-stick to the VC and comes up with a $1M valuation for their not-really-working-yet prototype.  Why is it $1M? This is their Big Thing and they want to get rich too, and they won’t get rich by giving the company away.
Strive to impedance match the values from each side.  This may require a ‘device’ of some sort to match what are otherwise mismatched entities (which is a good topic for a future post).

#2 : Finding the Innovation
It’s true that you need a good management team that can execute.  Just having a good idea is essentially worthless.  But both are critical to generate value.  Perhaps your management team has the operational chops, but innovation is also an absolute requirement.  And it’s up to the VC to recognize this.  That’s why many VCs only invest in serial entrepreneurs – they can’t or don’t want to bother to evaluate the contenders for both managerial/operational excellence as well as ability to innovate.
An impedance match here can happen when a VC isn’t merely bringing money – he’s also bringing an inherent knowledge of the technology and what it’ll take to execute on the business that exploits or markets that technology.  But the entrepreneur needs to have both the ability to innovate and to execute.

#3 : The Complete Network
Each side brings with them their own network.  The technical side may be experts in the field, etc.  The VC side may be business or operational connections.  Each side is an ‘interface point’ for the network behind them, since these small teams can’t do it all on their own.
An impedance match here is one that couples each side to form the complete network required to execute on the business.

That’s all for now.  I’m sure I’ll think of more later… :)

abel.co

I have just acquired abel.co domain.